The developments in West Asia are particularly troubling for livers of peace and human rights. Two questions are especially important: First is the Isreali war a limited war as US diplomats will have us believe? Or is it a larger regional war that could destabilize the POST-WWII world order? If the second possibility is closer to the truth why is the Isreali war escalating in scale only incrementally? Second what will be the impact of the on Defense Industrial Complexes? Especially with respect to its strangle hold on governments. U.S. President Dwight D Eisenhower had aphorised with deadly accuracy that if left unchecked the military industrial complex could upend democracy in the US. Closer at home Adani industries increasing footprint in defense production could pose a similar challenge for Indian democracy. Here are a few random comments to both the questions.
Iran, Isreal, West Asia maps
First: The Isreal not a limited war. Isreal wants an unlimited war both out of ideological convictions and out of compulsions of real politik.
Ideologically the hardline zionsts views this war as an opportunity to extend Isreal to its natural frontiers (a sort of greater Isreal). They hope that in this war the US, French and British axis will ultimately back Isreal because defeat of Isreal will end their control over petro-economy & politics.
They also hope that the Sunni- Arab ruling elite of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE would covertly back them because of their longstanding rivalry with Iran and it’s proxies.
That the war in West Asia is increasing in scale incrementally is becase of the strategic brilliance of Iran. The overkill of Palestinians and then the Lebanese turned the Muslim opinion against Isreal, to an extent where sectarian and ethnic divide in the Muslim world is becoming increasingly more untenable. (Ali Khamenei’s public address on this theme was not fortuitous)
Iran, Isreal, West Asia map
Furthermore, the cream of IDF is engaged in Gaza and West Bank, where they have not succeeded in eradicating Hamas. They will face a similar unending war in Lebanon where they had failed to eradicate Hezbollah in 2006.
The IDF thus is badly engaged in a war at three fronts. This is when Iran chose to retaliate. In doing so Iran is attempting to claim the leadership of the Muslim world. Furthermore, it would encourage the war to develop as an energy war where Isreal targets Iranian oil and Iran targets Isreali energy and gas facilities, which would have devastating impact on US and European economies.
The final chapter of the war maneuvers will be written by Turkiye, will it join the fight against Isreal? Will it become an interlocutor between Iran and Israel as it did in the Ukrainian war? Or will it sit out? Much depends on what concessions US & EU offer to pull Turkiye out of it’s economic meltdown.
Second: Wars are usually a bonanza for defense industry and defense contractors. However, the current context is different from the usual. Western defense industry is bursting at its seams trying to meet the requirements of Ukraine. EU is scraping at the bottom of the barrel. Tanks that had been moth-balled have been pulled out and sent to Ukraine, many that are not fit for battle. Same is true for the supply of F16s, which is a dated technology that will be flown by unexperienced pilots. More importantly, both in the Ukraine and the Isreal war the US tactic will not work. These wars will be fought on the ground and will be meatgrinders. NATO has never faced such wars.
For Western Defense Industrial Complex these are wars that the demand would overwhelm the supply. This is what had happened to Germany when they faced the soviet army in WWII. I have a feeling that the Industrial Military Complexes that emerged out of the US- USSR arm race during the cold war is about to face its moment of reckoning.
* Kumar Sanjay Singh is Associate Professor at Department of History, Swami Shraddhanand College, Delhi.