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India May Rethink Its ‘No First Use’ Nuclear Doctrine, Says Prof Vipin Narang

March 24, 2017 | By Sikh Siyasat Bureau

Washington: As per the media reports emanating from Washington India’s nuclear doctrine may be undergoing a major and worrying shift since its inception in the year 2003. At Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference  it was reportedly said that, If India fears imminent use of nuclear weapons by Pakistan, will it go first, upending its doctrine of ‘no first use’, and conduct a comprehensive first strike, taking out Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which has set off a major concern to the very existence of peace and security in the Indian Sub-continent.

This conference,t takes place after every two years to discuss nuclear weapons, proliferation and associated topics, is a gathering of the world’s top nuclear strategists.But this first strike will not be aimed at urban centres and conventional targets of a retaliatory strike intended to punish and prevent an escalation, but against Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal, to preempt a nuclear attack altogether.

Vipin Narang a professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specialises in nuclear proliferation and strategy, said in his prepared remarks that there was increasing “evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first” notes a report published in The Wire a weekly news magazine.

“India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries (launch vehicles for Pakistan’s tactical battlefield nuclear warheads) in the theatre, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’ that attempts to completely disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons so that India does not have to engage in iterative tit-for-tat exchanges and expose its own cities to nuclear destruction,” he said. Comprehensive counterforce is an informal phrase used to describe counterattack on a nuclear arsenal, notes Hindustan Times (HT).

Relations between the neighbours are at the lowest since a string of militant attacks on Indian military installations which New Delhi blames on Pakistan-based militants. India last year claimed to have carried out surgical strikes against militant launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir but Islamabad denied any such operation took place said the media in its report.

Speaking on Monday (March 20) on “Beyond the Nuclear Threshold: Causes and Consequences of First Use,” Prof Narang said conventional wisdom on how nuclear weapons might be used in South Asia no longer applied.

He cited Menon’s recently released book, Choices: Inside the Making of Indian Foreign Policy, to argue that India’s doctrine appeared to have moved from “counter-value” strikes to “counter-force” strikes. In other words, from targeting population centres to aiming at Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, notes The Wire in its weekly edition.

Moreover, Shivshankar Menon, who as NSA was involved in decisions on targeting of nuclear weapons, talks of counter-value targeting in the past tense, saying it was the “logical posture at first,” implying it may no longer be. he goes on to say that if Pakistan were to use tactical nuclear weapons against India or appeared to be preparing to do so, it would “effectively be opening the door to a massive Indian first strike, having crossed India’s declared red lines.”

“There would be little incentive, once Pakistan had taken hostilities to the nuclear level, for India to limit its response, since that would only invite further escalation by Pakistan. India would hardly risk giving Pakistan the chance to carry out a massive nuclear strike after the Indian response to Pakistan using tactical nuclear weapons. In other words, Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons use [or imminent use] would effectively free India to undertake a comprehensive first strike against Pakistan,” said Vipin Narang while quoting Shivshankar Menon’s book.

New Delhi declared its no-first use strike policy in 2003, undertaking to not start a nuclear war in a neighborhood packed with nuclear actors Pakistan and its hermetically stoic backer China, countries that had fought wars with India.

As Pakistan, which has the world’s fastest growing nuclear arsenal, segued to smaller battlefield nuclear weapons, called tactical weapons, to offset Indian superiority in conventional warfare, New Delhi was forced to rethink its choices, Prof Narang reportedly said in his statement to the press.

He further said that this suggests that the country most likely to go first in South Asia “may not be Pakistan, but India,” if and when it believed that Pakistan was ready to cross the nuclear threshold. But Pakistan won’t sit idle in this scenario and would want to go first and massively, creating a dangerous instability.

Last year, Parrikar, who was India’s defence minister at the time, said that India should not bind itself to a no first use policy and only stress that it will always act responsibly. He later clarified the comment, saying it was his “personal opinion,” further surprising nuclear experts, reads a quote from a report published in The Nation a Pakistan base English vernacular.

However, while  referencing a quote from a report published in Hindustan Times (HT) Prof Narang states that there are also worries in India that New Delhi might not have full information on the whereabouts of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and tactical warheads that are much smaller and mounted on lorries to be driven around to escape detection through satellite imagery, quotes

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Related Topics: Indian Politics, Indian State, Nuclear Doctrine, Pakistan

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