Ludhiana: The sudden spike in temperatures at the end of February and early March has posed a severe threat to the wheat crop yield. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), temperatures this month are likely to remain 5 to 7 degrees Celsius above normal, which is adversely affecting the crucial grain-filling stage. With minimal chances of rain in the coming days, wheat production in North India could plummet by 10 to 20 percent.
The impact of this severe heat is likely to be felt across Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and other northern states. In Punjab alone, wheat production could fall by 1.2 to 2 million (12 to 20 lakh) tonnes this season. Over 50,000 acres of crops in districts like Bathinda, Moga, Sangrur, and Ludhiana are expected to be affected.
Widespread Impact of the Damage
The wheat crop in Punjab is currently at the critical grain-filling and ear-development stage. The sudden temperature rise is causing the plants to dry up and reducing the grain’s weight. This damage could surpass the losses seen during the 2022 heatwave, when yields dropped by 5 to 10 percent.
In villages near Khanna, crops are turning yellow, and grains are shrinking. Farmers Daljit Singh Naulari and Amritpal Singh Benipal noted that the sudden heat is turning wheat leaves and ears yellow, making a drop in yield inevitable. The heat will cause the grains to shrivel. According to agricultural scientists, this will not only reduce the yield but also degrade the grain quality, dealing a major blow to wheat seed producers. The damage is even more severe in rain-fed (unirrigated) fields, where up to 30 percent of the crop is facing drought-like conditions. A report suggests that if this heatwave continues for another 15 days, losses could reach up to 25 percent.
Farmers’ Concerns and Economic Impact
Samyukt Kisan Morcha leaders Balbir Singh Rajewal and Harinder Singh Lakhowal stated that the sudden heat has dealt a massive blow to the farming community. If the yield drops by even 5 to 7 quintals per acre, a farmer will suffer an income loss of ₹20,000 to ₹25,000 per acre. Rajewal even claimed that the wheat yield could fall by up to 40 percent.
According to one report, temperatures hovering between 25 and 30 degrees in February have already reduced grain weight by 10 percent. International news agency Reuters has warned that this heatwave could drive up global food inflation. Farmer leaders have demanded that the government urgently assess the crop damage and provide immediate financial assistance.
Expert Recommendations
The Punjab Agriculture Department has advised farmers to take immediate preventive steps. The primary recommendation is to spray a 2% Potassium Nitrate (Potash) solution or a 2% nitrogen-rich urea solution every 4-5 days. Additionally, farmers should apply light irrigation to maintain 40-50 percent soil moisture. Agricultural scientist Dr. Anurag Kumar noted that providing proper nutrition to the crop could mitigate the damage by up to 30 percent.
Threat Looms Over Haryana, MP, and Other States
Apart from Punjab, temperatures in Haryana districts like Kurukshetra and Kaithal have touched 38 degrees Celsius, with estimated crop losses of 12-18 percent. Similarly, wheat crops in areas like Indore and Bhopal in Madhya Pradesh are also suffering from the heat.
Central Government’s Role and Policies
The Central Government has set a wheat procurement target of 33 million (3.3 crore) tonnes for 2026-27, which now seems difficult to achieve due to the heatwave. Discussions about imposing a ban on wheat exports, similar to the one in 2022, have already begun. The Union Agriculture Ministry has advised farmers to file insurance claims for their damaged crops under the National Crop Insurance Scheme.
Notably, agricultural electricity demand is expected to surge by 20 percent due to the heat. Experts suggest that the government must focus on long-term strategies, particularly the development and promotion of climate-resilient wheat varieties.
