The crucial assembly elections 2025 have just been concluded. The exceptionally high poll percentage is being dissected to understand which of the two alliances, NDA or Mahagathbandhan, may benefit from this substantial jump in poll percentage.

Pollsters have pointed out that the polling percentage female voters is larger than the poll percentage of male voters. Furthermore, since female voters have in the past couple of elections, i.e., the 2020 assembly elections and 2024 Parliamentary elections, favored Nitish Kumar and his alliance partners; therefore, NDA may gain from the higher poll percentage of women.

As per the media reports poll percentage of women voters is higher than that of the male voters in the recently concluded Bihar assembly elections 2025. Wikipedia entry records that female poll percentage was 71.60%, while male poll percentage stood at 62.80%.

However, it will be erroneous to conclude from this that the gap between female and male votes is 8.80% in the total votes casted in Bihar assembly elections. The reason being that the sex ratio in Bihar electoral roll post-SIR is much lower than the pre-SIR electoral roll.

In the pre-SIR electoral roll the sex ratio was 914 female voters per 1000 male voters In the post-SIR electoral roll this has fallen to 892 female voters per 1000 male voters.

Thus the weight of female votes is much lower than before. It now stand at .892 to 1 male vote. Comparison between poll percentage of female and male votes polled must take into account this decline in the weight of female votes relative to male votes.

The relationship of promotion between male and female vote post-SIR stands at 1 male vote : .892 female vote.

Since 71.6% of total eligible female voters casted votes, while 62.80% of total eligible male voters casted votes as per the Wikipedia.

Then the relationship of proportion between the poll percentage of male votes : female votes is as follows:-

62.80% × 1 male vote: 71.60% × .892 female votes.Which works out to 62.80% male votes : 63.86% female votes. The gap in female and male vote in the total votes polled, therefore, works out to 1.06%.

Ergo, the difference between the proportionate weight of female and male votes is not substantial enough to decisively favour either of the two rival alliances in the Bihar assembly elections 2025.

Kumar Sanjay Singh
Associate Professor
Department of History
Swami Shraddhanand College,
Delhi University